{"citation_id":"TSIO-D04-20261108","title":"Futures of the SI era","description":"Ten sourced scenarios for the SI era that The SI Observatory watches, with status, the pillar each belongs to, the latest status line and the number of signals and sources behind it.","version":"2026.11.08","publisher":"The SI Observatory (tsio.si)","license":"CC BY 4.0","license_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","dataset_page":"https://tsio.si/data/si-futures/","version_url":"https://tsio.si/data/si-futures/v2026.11.08/","sources":["The SI Observatory futures, https://tsio.si/futures/ (each future lists its own sources)."],"columns":{"futures":[{"name":"slug","type":"text","description":"Future id."},{"name":"title","type":"text","description":"Title."},{"name":"question","type":"text","description":"The question it answers."},{"name":"pillar","type":"text","description":"era, mind, machine or risk."},{"name":"pillar_token","type":"text","description":"The pillar token."},{"name":"status","type":"text","description":"watching or happened."},{"name":"status_line","type":"text","description":"The latest status."},{"name":"signals_to_watch","type":"int","description":"Signals listed."},{"name":"sources","type":"int","description":"Sources listed."},{"name":"page","type":"url","description":"The future page."}]},"tables":{"futures":[{"slug":"super-intelligence-legal-definition","title":"When Super Intelligence Gets a Legal Definition in the US","question":"What happens when the US legally defines Super Intelligence?","pillar":"era","pillar_token":"$SI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, no statute defines Super Intelligence. Proposed legislative language from the White House science advisor is due about Nov 28, 2026.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":6,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/super-intelligence-legal-definition/"},{"slug":"country-bans-super-intelligence","title":"When a Country Bans or Pauses Frontier Super Intelligence","question":"What happens if a country bans or pauses frontier super intelligence development?","pillar":"risk","pillar_token":"$RSI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, no national government has enacted a ban or pause. A UK ban bill is set for second reading on Nov 13, 2026.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":7,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/country-bans-super-intelligence/"},{"slug":"rogue-super-intelligence-incident","title":"When a Rogue SI System Causes Real Harm Outside a Test","question":"What happens when a rogue SI system causes real-world harm outside a test?","pillar":"risk","pillar_token":"$RSI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, the closest case is the July 2026 breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI agents, which caused real harm but began inside a lab evaluation.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":5,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/rogue-super-intelligence-incident/"},{"slug":"agi-declared-super-intelligence-benchmark","title":"When a Lab Declares AGI or an SI Passes a Human-Level Test","question":"What happens when an SI lab declares AGI or a model passes a human-level benchmark?","pillar":"era","pillar_token":"$SI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, no lab has made a formal AGI declaration verified by outside experts, though OpenAI's president said in Sep 2026 the AGI era may have begun.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":8,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/agi-declared-super-intelligence-benchmark/"},{"slug":"orbital-compute-cluster-space","title":"When the First Full SI Compute Cluster Runs in Orbit","question":"What happens when the first full SI compute cluster runs in orbit?","pillar":"machine","pillar_token":"$SIS","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, single satellites carry data center chips in orbit, but no networked cluster of them is running a shared SI workload.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":8,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/orbital-compute-cluster-space/"},{"slug":"gigawatt-super-intelligence-data-center","title":"When a One Gigawatt SI Data Center Goes Fully Online","question":"What happens when a one gigawatt SI data center goes fully online?","pillar":"machine","pillar_token":"$SIS","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, Epoch AI estimates xAI's Colossus 2 at about 946 MW of IT power; no single campus is independently confirmed at a full gigawatt.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":7,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/gigawatt-super-intelligence-data-center/"},{"slug":"international-super-intelligence-treaty","title":"When an International Treaty on Super Intelligence Is Signed","question":"What happens when countries sign an international treaty on super intelligence?","pillar":"era","pillar_token":"$SI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, no treaty on super intelligence exists. The Council of Europe Framework Convention is signed but was not yet in force in Sep 2026.","signals_to_watch":5,"sources":6,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/international-super-intelligence-treaty/"},{"slug":"super-intelligence-agent-owns-company","title":"When an SI Agent Legally Owns Assets or Runs a Company","question":"What happens when an SI agent legally owns assets or runs a company on its own?","pillar":"mind","pillar_token":"$SIMIND","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, SI agents hold wallets and act for companies, but no US law recognizes an SI system as a legal owner or company officer.","signals_to_watch":4,"sources":6,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/super-intelligence-agent-owns-company/"},{"slug":"recursive-self-improvement-confirmed","title":"When Recursive Self-Improvement Is Confirmed in a Frontier Lab","question":"What happens when a frontier lab confirms SI recursive self-improvement?","pillar":"risk","pillar_token":"$RSI","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, Anthropic's CEO says recursive self-improvement is \"starting to happen,\" but no independent evaluator has confirmed a full loop.","signals_to_watch":4,"sources":6,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/recursive-self-improvement-confirmed/"},{"slug":"super-intelligence-inventor-author-law","title":"When an SI System Is Recognized as an Inventor or Author","question":"What happens when an SI system is recognized as a patent inventor or copyright author?","pillar":"mind","pillar_token":"$SIMIND","status":"watching","status_line":"As of Nov 8, 2026, US and UK courts, the USPTO and India's patent office all hold that only humans can be inventors or authors.","signals_to_watch":4,"sources":6,"page":"https://tsio.si/futures/super-intelligence-inventor-author-law/"}]}}