{
 "title": "Futures watch status",
 "description": "The ten SI futures the Observatory watches, with status, pillar and the latest status line.",
 "source": "https://tsio.si/report/",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "updated": "2026-11-08",
 "columns": [
  "slug",
  "title",
  "status",
  "pillar",
  "status_line"
 ],
 "rows": [
  {
   "slug": "super-intelligence-legal-definition",
   "title": "When Super Intelligence Gets a Legal Definition in the US",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "era",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, no statute defines Super Intelligence. Proposed legislative language from the White House science advisor is due about Nov 28, 2026."
  },
  {
   "slug": "country-bans-super-intelligence",
   "title": "When a Country Bans or Pauses Frontier Super Intelligence",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "risk",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, no national government has enacted a ban or pause. A UK ban bill is set for second reading on Nov 13, 2026."
  },
  {
   "slug": "rogue-super-intelligence-incident",
   "title": "When a Rogue SI System Causes Real Harm Outside a Test",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "risk",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, the closest case is the July 2026 breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI agents, which caused real harm but began inside a lab evaluation."
  },
  {
   "slug": "agi-declared-super-intelligence-benchmark",
   "title": "When a Lab Declares AGI or an SI Passes a Human-Level Test",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "era",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, no lab has made a formal AGI declaration verified by outside experts, though OpenAI's president said in Sep 2026 the AGI era may have begun."
  },
  {
   "slug": "orbital-compute-cluster-space",
   "title": "When the First Full SI Compute Cluster Runs in Orbit",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "machine",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, single satellites carry data center chips in orbit, but no networked cluster of them is running a shared SI workload."
  },
  {
   "slug": "gigawatt-super-intelligence-data-center",
   "title": "When a One Gigawatt SI Data Center Goes Fully Online",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "machine",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, Epoch AI estimates xAI's Colossus 2 at about 946 MW of IT power; no single campus is independently confirmed at a full gigawatt."
  },
  {
   "slug": "international-super-intelligence-treaty",
   "title": "When an International Treaty on Super Intelligence Is Signed",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "era",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, no treaty on super intelligence exists. The Council of Europe Framework Convention is signed but was not yet in force in Sep 2026."
  },
  {
   "slug": "super-intelligence-agent-owns-company",
   "title": "When an SI Agent Legally Owns Assets or Runs a Company",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "mind",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, SI agents hold wallets and act for companies, but no US law recognizes an SI system as a legal owner or company officer."
  },
  {
   "slug": "recursive-self-improvement-confirmed",
   "title": "When Recursive Self-Improvement Is Confirmed in a Frontier Lab",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "risk",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, Anthropic's CEO says recursive self-improvement is \"starting to happen,\" but no independent evaluator has confirmed a full loop."
  },
  {
   "slug": "super-intelligence-inventor-author-law",
   "title": "When an SI System Is Recognized as an Inventor or Author",
   "status": "watching",
   "pillar": "mind",
   "status_line": "As of Nov 8, 2026, US and UK courts, the USPTO and India's patent office all hold that only humans can be inventors or authors."
  }
 ]
}